Systematik zur Analyse von Ereignissen geringer Häufigkeit durch Ableitung kausaler Vorstufen

Haage, Fabian Tobias; Prefi, Thomas (Thesis advisor); Ladkin, Peter Bernard (Thesis advisor); Schmitt, Robert Heinrich (Thesis advisor)

Aachen (2018)
Dissertation / PhD Thesis


The dissertation discusses the analysis of low occurrence rate events. These events typically appear to be various in nature, such as certain kinds of accidents, or comparable failures in a production process. Due to their low occurence rates, limitations arise when applying standard methods of statistical analysis to these events. Hence, low occurrence rate events are typically analysed in isolation and do not take comparable events into consideration. The goal of this research is to develop a methodology that incorporates comparable events into the model, in order to provide more depth and rigor to the analysis and drive more robust insights. This is achieved by identifying common near miss events which have a causal relationship to the occurence of actual events. By deeper examination of both near missevents and the causal connections between near miss events and actual events, a more profound depth of analysis is obtained. Firstly, a terminology for causal near miss events is defined. Secondly, a methodology is developed based on the methods of Why-Because Analysis, Causal Fault Analysis and Fault Tree Analysis. Finally, the methodology is applied and evaluated using two real life examples. The proposed methodology enables the objective and complete identification of causal near miss events, as well as providing a procedure for the qualitative and quantitive evaluation of their significance relative to the occurence of an actual event.